Model Architecture
Our six-factor scoring system is the foundation of our predictive edge. Each module is weighted to reflect its impact on the final outcome.
Starting Pitching
30%
The primary determinant of a game. We analyze velocity, movement, and historical strikeout rates to project the starter's performance.
Bullpen
20%
Impact of the relievers. We evaluate the bullpen's depth and the probability of a blown save, factoring in the opposing team's offensive strength.
Offense vs Starter
25%
The matchup between the opposing team's hitters and the starting pitcher's zone. We calculate the expected number of outs and runs.
Park/Weather
10%
Environmental factors. We adjust for ballpark dimensions, wind speed, and temperature to project how the game will play out.
Situational
10%
Specialized play. We account for specific game situations like the bases loaded or a runner on second, adjusting for high-leverage scenarios.
Injury/Lineup
5%
Player availability and lineup adjustments. We factor in injury reports and bench depth to project the most likely starting XI.
Edge Thresholds & Sizing
Technical documentation on the model's decision logic for edge thresholds and confidence tier sizing.
Edge Threshold
Confidence Tier
Model Logic
3.0% Edge
1.5u
High-probability edge with significant value potential.
1.5% Edge
1.0u
Medium-probability edge with moderate value potential.
0.5% Edge
0.75u
Low-probability edge with minimal value potential.
0.1% Edge
0.5u
High-risk, low-reward edge with significant volatility.